Brexit could trigger a renaissance for the UK manufacturing sector – with Swindon well-placed to benefit, according to the town’s long-established commercial property agency Whitmarsh Lockhart. 
James Lockhart, pictured, partner at the firm, claimed leaving the constraints of the EU could deliver the long-hoped-for improvements in UK productivity.
In comments that go against most of the expert opinions in the commercial property market, he said: “The full implications of the Brexit will inevitably take a few years to materialise. However I believe the future is brighter than it might seem at present and we will see a positive effect in the long term for UK commerce.
“Many of our home-grown industries are world-leaders and a large number of the leading companies I work alongside increasingly look at business on a global stage, which Europe only plays a small part in.
“Whilst the fall in the value of the pound and the FTSE 100 was to be expected, it will act as a stimulus to our manufacturing industries and in the medium to long term we should see the UK producing more goods ourselves rather than rely on importation.
“As we stop relying on others to provide what we need I suspect we will see an improvement in productivity, which has been the bane of our economy. With the country’s industries investing in new plant, equipment and robotics, we’ll be creating a stronger position for our economy in the long term.
“The flexibility of UK business is amazing. I believe that UK manufacturing is in for a renaissance over the coming years and Swindon is well-placed to take the benefit of this due to our strong industrial and engineering background.”
James' views run counter to those of international property agency JLL, which fears that occupier demand for offices, warehouses and shops could be weaker and investment sentiment subdued. 
The housing market could also be hit by political instability, Mark Noble, managing director of Swindon estate agents Castles said. However, lower prices would be welcome by first-time buyers who are now priced out of the market.
Paul Baker, director in the regional office of JLL, said: “Even if it is effectively ‘business as usual’ for the UK in terms of trade and legislation until 2018, such a major change will inevitably create uncertainty in the economy and real estate markets. In the event of a well-managed exit these impacts will be largely confined to the UK.
“In the short term we may see a weakening in occupier demand. The impact on rents may be limited by tight supply, but activity will be adversely hit while initial uncertainty about direction and timing continues. Investor sentiment may also remain subdued in the short to medium term. For property markets, the initial correction may be most severe but should be followed by an upturn as opportunities re-emerge in UK core markets and benefits of weak sterling are recognised. Sentiment and relative pricing will be key.
“Much will depend on the speed of negotiation, the wider political picture and whether a clear direction of travel and timetable for an EU exit is established early on.”
JLL’s expert analysis:
· Occupier demand will weaken in line with economic growth and declining business sentiment. The impact on rents may be limited by tight supply, but activity will be adversely hit.
· Investor sentiment will deteriorate further subduing capital flows in the short to medium term.
· The residential market is expected to cool despite lower interest rates, but any correction will be mild.
· For property markets, the initial correction may be most severe and followed by an upturn as opportunities re-emerge in UK core markets and benefits of weak sterling are recognised. Sentiment and relative pricing will be key.
· Much will depend on the speed of negotiation, the wider political picture and whether a clear and favourable direction of travel is established early on.
Commenting on the impact on the housing market, Paul Baker said: “While the focus leading up to the Referendum has been on the UK's international trading relationships, we are deeply concerned that domestic politics will now be the key risk to the housing market. Regardless of the Referendum outcome, the UK has a deep housing supply imbalance and concerted attention from politicians to deliver credible, lasting solutions to the supply conundrum is desperately needed. Protracted infighting within the UK’s political parties will only harm the UK economy and any chance of a timely recovery from the expected economic slowdown.”
Mark Noble said: “We have no idea about what we’ll face over the coming weeks, months and years.
“There will be slight uncertainty in the short term. However, we can rest assured that with uncertainty will come opportunity. Births, deaths, marriage, divorce, relocations, retirement and good old fashioned wanting to get on the ladder or invest in property will still exist.”
Regional senior director of property agents Bilfinger GVA, Jo Davis, added: “What is certain in the short term is that we will see a negative impact on trade volumes, foreign direct investment levels, exchange rates and borrowing costs. It is vital therefore that Government moves decisively to set out how the UK navigates through this new economic landscape, and so allows us to reach a more certain and stable outlook in the medium to long term.”
