The economy has just enjoyed “almost a golden week” with falling unemployment, rising wage increases and low inflation, Swindon business leaders heard at an Economic Question Time hosted by law firm Withy King.
But HSBC head of economics Mark Berrisford-Smith told the event that while the UK was performing markedly better than virtually all other industrialised countries, the economy could still be buffeted by the EU referendum and a possible Greek exit from the euro and a slowdown in growth was inevitable.
“How are we doing? We’re doing pretty well,” he said. “Last week was almost a golden week in terms of the economic data, which was all good. We haven’t felt this good for about five years.”
Job creation was strong – about 400,000 jobs were created last year – and the halving of the oil price had been positive for the economy. Consumers were now spending again and growth in the retail sector was powering ahead.
However, this could peter out as the Bank of England “runs out of excuses not to raise interest rates”, he said, predicting that the first upwards movement in the base rate could even come later this year rather than early next year as previously expected.
While consumers and retailers were enjoying the economic conditions, other businesses – particularly manufacturers and exporters – were seeing no growth.
And Chancellor George Osborne’s Budget on July 8 – coming on the back of the Tories’ General Election promises to slash £30bn from public spending – was unlikely to help. “It’s not going to be pretty,” he said.
Mr Berrisford-Smith’s presentation was followed by a Question Time-style session chaired by Nicky Alberry of Business West and the Swindon and Wiltshire Initiative. Joining Mr Berrisford-Smith on the panel were Rishi Ladwa, corporate & commercial associate in Withy King’s Swindon office, Rob Beale, partner at Swindon accountants Morris Owen, and Robert Buckland, business editor of Swindon Business News.
Questions ranged from the likely impact of a ‘no’ vote in the EU referendum on Swindon businesses, to local planning policy restricting the growth of the town and support for the town’s manufacturing sector.
The breakfast event was held at Blunsdon House Hotel.
Pictured: Nicky Alberry poses a question to the Swindon Economic Question Time panel, from left, HSBC's Mark Berrisford-Smith, Robert Buckland of Swindon Business News, Rob Beale of Morris Owen, and Rishi Ladwa of Withy King