Business West urges Govt to act as unemployment edges up amid fresh fears of an economic slowdown

July 20, 2016
By

The region’s largest business organisation, Business West, today called for “stability, clarity and action” from the Government after official figures showed a small rise in unemployment across the South West and fears grow of an economic slowdown.

The number of people out of work and claiming benefit edged up by 8,000 – or 0.2% – to 112,000 in the three months to May.

The increase was in contrast to the national picture, with UK-wide unemployment falling by 54,000 to 1.65m – or 4.9%.

But some analysts warned unemployment nationally could “drift up” later this year as some firms start to cut jobs or put hiring decisions on hold.

While the period covered by today’s jobless figures was before the EU referendum on June 23, recent surveys show high levels of business uncertainty ahead of the vote. However, a survey by Business West, the organisation behind the Swindon & Wiltshire Initiative, showed the local economy grew ahead of the EU referendum with business confidence, job creation and sales all climbing.

On a similarly positive note, the South West’s jobless rate remains below the national average and youth unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since before the recession.

Business West managing director Phil Smith, pictured, said: “This latest rise in unemployment comes as little surprise given the uncertainty brought about by the EU referendum.

“The figures chime with the findings of our most recent Local Business Survey, which showed recruitment intentions and other economic indicators stalling [in the Bristol/Bath area] over the same period.

“While rising unemployment is never welcome, levels in the South West remain below the national average and we can take heart from the fact that two thirds of firms said they remain confident about the year ahead.

“There are also encouraging signs nationally for youth employment, which at 13.5%, has not been lower since 2005.

“Recent warnings of a slowdown have no doubt been influenced by the build up and reaction to our momentous decision to leave the European Union. Regardless of which way our members voted, businesses in the South West will be calling for stability, clarity and action from the markets and from Government in the weeks and months ahead.”

He repeated Business West’s call to the 18,000-plus businesses across the South West it represents through its network of chambers of commerce to share their views with the organisation on Brexit, including any concerns they may have and the priorities for the Government. Businesses can email their views to policy@businesswest.co.uk

Capital Economics UK economist Paul Hollingsworth told the BBC: “We expect the unemployment rate to begin to drift up over the coming quarters. The upshot is that these may be the best set of labour market figures for a while,"

The Bank of England monthly summary of business conditions, also released today said: “A majority of firms spoken with did not expect a near-term impact from the result on their investment or hiring plans.

“But around a third of contacts thought there would be some negative impact on those plans over the next twelve months.”

The results of Business West’s Local Business Survey, released last week, showed that the EU referendum campaign and fears the result hit Bristol firms’ confidence and impacted on the wider economy even before outcome was announced.

On all major indicators, the poll of more than 550 businesses across the West of England showed most of them performing worse than earlier in the year, with domestic and overseas sales and orders, confidence and job creation all down.

 

 

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